Blood donation projections using hierarchical time series forecasting: the case of Zimbabwe's national blood bank.

BACKGROUND: The discrepancy between blood supply and demand requires accurate forecasts of the blood supply at any blood bank. Accurate blood donation forecasting gives blood managers empirical evidence in blood inventory management. The study aims to model and predict blood donations in Zimbabwe using hierarchical time series. The modelling technique allows one to identify, say, a declining donor category, and in that way, the method offers feasible and targeted solutions for blood managers to work on. METHODS: The monthly blood donation data covering the period 2007 to 2018, collected from the National Blood Service Zimbabwe (NBSZ) was used. The data was disaggregated by gender and blood groups types within each gender category. The model validation involved utilising actual blood donation data from 2019 and 2020. The model's performance was evaluated through the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), uncovering expected and notable discrepancies during the Covid-19 pandemic period only. RESULTS: Blood group O had the highest monthly yield mean of 1507.85 and 1230.03 blood units for male and female donors, respectively. The top-down forecasting proportions (TDFP) under ARIMA, with a MAPE value of 11.30, was selected as the best approach and the model was then used to forecast future blood donations. The blood donation predictions for 2019 had a MAPE value of 14.80, suggesting alignment with previous years' donations. However, starting in April 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted blood collection, leading to a significant decrease in blood donation and hence a decrease in model accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: The gradual decrease in future blood donations exhibited by the predictions calls for blood authorities in Zimbabwe to develop interventions that encourage blood donor retention and regular donations. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic distorted the blood donation patterns such that the developed model did not capture the significant drop in blood donations during the pandemic period. Other shocks such as, a surge in global pandemics and other disasters, will inevitably affect the blood donation system. Thus, forecasting future blood collections with a high degree of accuracy requires robust mathematical models which factor in, the impact of various shocks to the system, on short notice.

Factors affecting hand hygiene practice during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Zimbabwean population: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Practicing hand hygiene is recommended as one of the key preventive measures for reducing the transmission of COVID-19 and other infectious agents. However, it is often not practiced frequently enough or correctly by the public. We aimed to identify barriers to and facilitators of hand hygiene in the Zimbabwean population during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A qualitative study was conducted with a purposive sample of health workers, village health workers, church leaders, traditional healers, teachers, youth leaders and the general population selected from ten districts across the country from September to October 2022. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 3 key informant interviews per site. In addition, one homogenous focus group discussion was also conducted per site using a focus group discussion guide. The data were recorded on audiotapes, transcribed verbatim, and translated into English. All the analyses were performed manually using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Two themes were identified as facilitators of hand hygiene. These include individual factors (knowledge of hand hygiene practices and how they are performed) and access-related factors (access to hand washing infrastructure, soap, and sanitizers). Among the barriers to hand hygiene, four themes were identified: individual factors (knowledge gaps in proper hand washing, lack of conviction about hand hygiene, and habitual behaviour), access-related factors (lack of access to hand washing infrastructure, soap, and sanitizers), safety concerns (concern about the side effects of sanitizers), and sociocultural and religious factors (social customs, cultural beliefs, values, and religious practices). CONCLUSION: During public health emergencies, there is a need for people to access uninterrupted, on-premises water supplies to promote compliance with hand hygiene. The provision of clean water and hand washing facilities is critical for vulnerable communities to afford them the opportunity to improve quality of life and facilitate resilience in the event of future pandemics. Community engagement is important for identifying vulnerability factors to provide appropriate mitigatory measures.

Social and structural drivers of HIV vulnerability among a respondent-driven sample of feminine and non-feminine presenting transgender women who have sex with men in Zimbabwe.

INTRODUCTION: We sought to characterize social and structural drivers of HIV vulnerability for transgender women (TGW) in Zimbabwe, where TGW are not legally recognized, and explore differences in vulnerability by feminine presentation. METHODS: A secondary analysis was conducted with a sub-sample of participants recruited from a 2019 respondent-driven sampling survey that comprised men who have sex with men, TGW and genderqueer individuals assigned male sex at birth, from two cities in Zimbabwe. Survey questionnaires captured information related to socio-demographics, sexual and substance use behaviours, and social and structural barriers to HIV services. Secondary analyses were restricted to participants who identified as female, transfemale or transwomen (236/1538) and were unweighted. Descriptive statistics were used to calculate sample estimates and chi-square and Fisher's exact tests were used to assess differences in vulnerability by feminine presentation. RESULTS: Among 236 TGW, almost half (45.3%) presented as feminine in the 6 months preceding the survey and 8.5% had ever used hormones to affirm their gender identities. Median age among TGW was 23 years (interquartile range: 20-26). Feminine presenting TGW in our sample had higher prevalence of arrest (15.9% vs. 3.9%), rejection by family/friends (38.3% vs. 14.0%), employment termination (11.2% vs. 3.9%), employment refusal (14.0% vs. 3.9%), denial of healthcare (16.8% vs. 2.3%), physical, sexual or verbal harassment or abuse (59.8% vs. 34.1%), alcohol dependence (32.7% vs. 12.4%), recent transactional sex with a male or TGW partner (30.8% vs. 13.3%) and recent non-injection drug use (38.3% vs. 20.2%) than non-feminine presenting TGW (all p-value <0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that TGW, particularly feminine presenting TGW, experience social and structural inequities which may contribute to HIV vulnerability. Interventions aimed at addressing inequities, including trans competency training for providers and gender-affirming, psychosocial and legal support services for TGW, might mitigate risk.

Presence of tuberculosis symptoms among HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) in Zimbabwe.

We conducted secondary data analysis using a biobehavioral survey dataset of 1538 MSM from Zimbabwe. Survey participants were screened for the four symptoms suggestive of tuberculosis infection using the WHO TB screening algorithm. Results: All participants experienced at least one symptom suggestive of tuberculosis. 40% of HIV-positive MSM reported having had a cough in the last month and 13% of them experienced unexpected weight loss. The prevalence of experiencing any of the four TB symptoms amongst HIV-positive MSM was 23%. Contribution There is an urgent need for active TB case finding and treatment amongst HIV-positive MSM in Zimbabwe. Clinicians will need to ensure that MSM who need TB testing receive it timeously.

Prevalence and risk factors for diabetic foot complications among people living with diabetes in Harare, Zimbabwe: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Diabetic foot disease (DF) is a common diabetes-related complication; however, the prevalence and associated risk factors for DF are not well characterised among people living with diabetes (PLWD) in Zimbabwe. This may suggest the unavailability of adequate strategies to diagnose and treat DF in the country. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of DF and associated risk factors for PLWD in Harare, Zimbabwe. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study, employing a quantitative approach. In total, 352 PLWD were recruited from 16 primary care clinics in Harare. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected via face-to-face interviews and clinical records reviews. The DF screening included an evaluation for peripheral neuropathy, ankle-brachial index (ABI), ulceration, and amputation. Self-administered questionnaires were used to assess knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAPs), and KAP was scored using Bloom's cut-off. Chi-Square goodness-of-fit tests were performed, and regression analyses were used for association analysis. The threshold for significance was p < 0.05. RESULTS: This group included 82 men and 279 women, with a combined mean age of 57.9 ± 14 years. Twenty one (~ 26%) men and 41 (15%) women had type 1 diabetes. The diabetes type distribution significantly differed by gender (p < 0.001). Oral hypoglycaemics (71%) were most commonly administered for management. DF was observed in 53% (95% CI = 50-56) of PLWD. Other DF symptoms observed were abnormal ABI (53%), peripheral neuropathy (53%), foot ulceration (17%) and amputation (3%). Peripheral neuropathy increased the risk of ulceration (OR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.1-2.6; p = 0.019), while insulin use was protective against amputation (OR = 0.1; 95% CI = 0.1-0.9; p = 0.049). Most (87%) of the participants demonstrated good DF knowledge and the importance of adhering to medication to prevent DF. However, 96% did not know that smoking was a risk factor for DF. Nearly two-thirds (63%) demonstrated poor attitudes and practices. Poor attitudes and practices were not predictors of DF ulceration risk (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: This study showed that there was a high prevalence of DF (53%) in PLWD in Zimbabwe, and insulin use was protective against DF. There is an urgent need for policy revisions to include foot screening in routine primary care and increasing insulin use for PLWD to prevent complications such as DF as an integral part of primary care.

The prevalence and determinants of blood pressure control among hypertension patients in eastern Zimbabwe: A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Uncontrolled blood pressure (BP), also known as hypertension, is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. Lowering the elevated BP can significantly reduce one's risk for cardiovascular diseases. This study aimed to ascertain the determinants of BP control among hypertension patients. METHODS: The data analyzed were from the exploratory survey of the Home Management of Hypertension (HoMHyper) project in eastern Zimbabwe. Hypertension patients were selected from the Chronic Disease Registers of five public health clinics using simple random sampling. A pretested interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect data, and the patient's BP was measured. The primary outcome, BP control, was used as a categorical variable (controlled vs. uncontrolled) to conduct a bivariate analysis. Variables significant at p<0.2 were included in the multivariable logistic regression analysis to control for confounding. Statistical significance in the final model was set at p<0.05. RESULTS: Data from 321 hypertension patients were analyzed; their mean age was 62.3±11.9 years. The prevalence of controlled BP was 41.4% (95% Confidence interval-CI = 36.0%-46.9%). After adjusting for confounding, patients' residence and medication stocks were associated with BP control. Patients who resided in high-density suburbs had higher odds of uncontrolled BP than those who resided in middle- and low-density suburbs (Adjusted odds ratios-AOR = 2.5; 95% CI = 1.4-4.4; p<0.01). Hypertension patients who experienced medication stockouts over the last six months had higher odds of uncontrolled BP than patients who did not experience stockouts (AOR = 1.8; 95% CI = 1.1-2.9). CONCLUSION: BP control among hypertension patients was suboptimal. Patient residence and antihypertensive medication stockouts were independent predictors of blood pressure control. We recommend exploring sustainable financing through private-public partnerships to ensure the availability of subsidized antihypertensive medication.

Modelling climate change impacts on the spatial distribution of anthrax in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: In Zimbabwe, anthrax is endemic with outbreaks being reported almost annually in livestock, wildlife, and humans over the past 40 years. Accurate modelling of its spatial distribution is key in formulating effective control strategies. In this study, an Ensemble Species Distribution Model was used to model the current and future distribution of anthrax occurrence in Zimbabwe. METHODS: Bioclimatic variables derived from the Beijing Climate Centre Climate System Model were used to model the disease. Collinearity testing was conducted on the 19 bioclimatic variables and elevation to remove redundancy. Variables that had no collinearity were used for anthrax habitat suitability modelling. Two future climate change scenarios for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used. Model evaluation was done using true skill, Kappa statistics and receiver operating characteristics. RESULTS: The results showed that under current bioclimatic conditions, eastern and western districts of Zimbabwe were modelled as highly suitable, central districts moderately suitable and southern parts marginally suitable for anthrax occurrence. Future predictions demonstrated that the suitable (8%) and highly suitable (7%) areas for anthrax occurrence would increase under RCP4.5 scenario. In contrast, a respective decrease (11%) and marginal increase (0.6%) of suitable and highly suitable areas for anthrax occurrence were predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. The percentage contribution of the predictors varied for the different scenarios; Bio6 and Bio18 for the current scenario, Bio2, Bio4 and Bio9 for the RCP4.5 and Bio3 and Bio15 for the RCP8.5 scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: The study revealed that areas currently suitable for anthrax should be targeted for surveillance and prevention. The predicted future anthrax distribution can be used to guide and prioritise surveillance and control activities and optimise allocation of limited resources. In the marginally to moderately suitable areas, effective disease surveillance systems and awareness need to be put in place for early detection of outbreaks. Targeted vaccinations and other control measures including collaborative 'One Health' strategies need to be implemented in the predicted highly suitable areas. In the southern part where a high decrease in suitability was predicted, continued monitoring would be necessary to detect incursions early.

Body weight and blood pressure changes on dolutegravir-, efavirenz- or atazanavir-based antiretroviral therapy in Zimbabwe: a longitudinal study.

INTRODUCTION: Dolutegravir (DTG) is widely used for antiretroviral therapy (ART). We compared weight and blood pressure trends and examined the association between high blood pressure and weight gain among people living with HIV (PLHIV) switching to or starting DTG-based, efavirenz (EFV)-based and ritonavir-boosted atazanavir (ATV/r)-based ART in Zimbabwe. METHODS: PLHIV aged 18 years or older who started or switched to DTG, EFV or ATV/r-based ART between January 2004 and June 2022 at Newlands Clinic in Harare, Zimbabwe, were eligible. Weight was measured at all visits (Seca floor scales); blood pressure only at clinician-led visits (Omron M2 sphygmomanometer). We used Bayesian additive models to estimate trends in weight gain and the proportion with high blood pressure (systolic >140 mmHg or diastolic >90 mmHg) in the first 2 years after starting or switching the regimen. Finally, we examined whether trends in the proportion with high blood pressure were related to weight change. RESULTS: We analysed 99,969 weight and 35,449 blood pressure records from 9487 adults (DTG: 4593; EFV: 3599; ATV/r: 1295). At 24 months after starting or switching to DTG, estimated median weight gains were 4.54 kg (90% credibility interval 3.88-5.28 kg) in women and 3.71 kg (3.07-4.45 kg) in men, around twice that observed for ATV/r and over four-times the gain observed for EFV. Prevalence of high blood pressure among PLHIV receiving DTG-based ART increased from around 5% at baseline to over 20% at 24 months, with no change in PLHIV receiving EFV- or ATV/r-based ART. High blood pressure in PLHIV switching to DTG was associated with weight gain, with stronger increases in the proportion with high blood pressure for larger weight gains. CONCLUSIONS: Among PLHIV starting ART or switching to a new regimen, DTG-based ART was associated with larger weight gains and a substantial increase in the prevalence of high blood pressure. Routine weight and blood pressure measurement and interventions to lower blood pressure could benefit PLHIV on DTG-based ART. Further studies are needed to elucidate the mechanisms and reversibility of these changes after discontinuation of DTG.

Estimating the impact of alternative programmatic cotrimoxazole strategies on mortality among children born to mothers with HIV: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines recommend cotrimoxazole prophylaxis for children who are HIV-exposed until infection is excluded and vertical transmission risk has ended. While cotrimoxazole has benefits for children with HIV, there is no mortality benefit for children who are HIV-exposed but uninfected, prompting a review of global guidelines. Here, we model the potential impact of alternative cotrimoxazole strategies on mortality in children who are HIV-exposed. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using a deterministic compartmental model, we estimated mortality in children who are HIV-exposed from 6 weeks to 2 years of age in 4 high-burden countries: Côte d'Ivoire, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. Vertical transmission rates, testing rates, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) uptake were derived from UNAIDS data, trial evidence, and meta-analyses. We explored 6 programmatic strategies: maintaining current recommendations; shorter cotrimoxazole provision for 3, 6, 9, or 12 months; and starting cotrimoxazole only for children diagnosed with HIV. Modelled alternatives to the current strategy increased mortality to varying degrees; countries with high vertical transmission had the greatest mortality. Compared to current recommendations, starting cotrimoxazole only after a positive HIV test had the greatest predicted increase in mortality: Mozambique (961 excess annual deaths; excess mortality 339 per 100,000 HIV-exposed children; risk ratio (RR) 1.06), Uganda (491; 221; RR 1.04), Zimbabwe (352; 260; RR 1.05), and Côte d'Ivoire (125; 322; RR 1.06). Similar effects were observed for 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month strategies. Increased mortality persisted but was attenuated when modelling lower cotrimoxazole uptake, smaller mortality benefits, higher testing coverage, and lower vertical transmission rates. The study is limited by uncertain estimates of cotrimoxazole coverage in programmatic settings; an inability to model increases in mortality arising from antimicrobial resistance due to limited surveillance data in sub-Saharan Africa; and lack of a formal health economic analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Changing current guidelines from universal cotrimoxazole provision for children who are HIV-exposed increased predicted mortality across the 4 modelled high-burden countries, depending on test-to-treat cascade coverage and vertical transmission rates. These findings can help inform policymaker deliberations on cotrimoxazole strategies, recognising that the risks and benefits differ across settings.

Health Screening Strategies for Artisanal and Small-Scale Miners for Tuberculosis, Human Immunodeficiency Virus and Silicosis: A Case of the USAID-Supported Kunda Nqob'iTB Project in Zimbabwe.

Artisanal and small-scale mining is characterized by excessive exposure to physical, chemical, ergonomic, psychosocial and biological hazards. There is a high burden of tuberculosis (TB), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections and silicosis among artisanal and small-scale miners (ASMs). The aim of this project report is to describe lessons learned from strategies implemented to reach ASMs with screening services for TB, HIV and silicosis in Zimbabwe through the Kunda-Nqob'i TB (KNTB) project supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The intervention package for screening ASMs for TB, HIV and silicosis included service provision through two occupational health clinics at two provincial hospitals and a mobile workplace-based screening (WBS) facility at the mining sites. From 1 October 2020 to 30 September 2023, 10,668 ASMs were screened, with a high number of cases of silicosis (21%) and TB (7.4%). There was a high burden of HIV (30%) in ASMs attending the occupational health clinics. The two occupational health clinics screened 3453 ASMs, while the mobile WBS activities screened 7215 ASMs during the period. A total of 370 healthcare workers (doctors/clinical officers, nurses, environmental health technicians and district tuberculosis and Leprosy control officers) were trained on TB and the fundamental diagnostic principles of silicosis. The KNTB project has been successful in reaching out to many ASMs operating in remote and hard-to-reach mining areas. The KNTB project has brought to light the positive health-seeking behavior of ASMs operating in remote areas. The project has brought to the fore the effectiveness of multi-stakeholder engagement and collaboration in reaching out to ASMs in remote areas with health screening services. There is a high burden of TB, HIV and silicosis in ASMs. Screening for TB, HIV and silicosis using workplace-based screening and occupational health clinics is an effective strategy and should be rolled out to all areas with high artisanal and small-scale mining activity.

Factors Associated with Having both Male and Female Recent Sexual Partnerships Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Harare and Bulawayo, Zimbabwe.

To better understand male and female sexual partnerships among men who have sex with men (MSM), we used data from a 2019 biobehavioral survey among MSM in Harare and Bulawayo, Zimbabwe to conduct bivariate analyses and multivariable logistic regression to determine whether sociodemographic characteristics and HIV-related factors were associated with having both male and female sexual partnerships within the last 6 months. Of included MSM (N = 1143), 31% reported both male and female partnerships in the last 6 months. Being married/cohabiting (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 8.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.92-14.95) or separated/divorced/widowed (aOR = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.24-3.08) vs. being single, and hazardous alcohol consumption (aOR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.19-2.09) were associated with higher odds of having both male and female recent partnerships. Being aged 35 + vs. 18-24 (aOR = 0.50, 95% CI = 0.31-0.81), condomless receptive anal intercourse at last sex with the main male partner (aOR = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.26-0.74), and positive HIV status (aOR = 0.46, 95% CI = 0.31-0.67) were associated with lower odds of recent male and female partnerships. MSM in Harare who reported harassment/abuse (aOR = 3.16, 95% CI = 1.72-5.79) had higher odds of both male and female partnerships than MSM in Bulawayo reporting harassment/abuse. The prevalence of both male and female recent partnerships (31%) was lower among MSM in this survey than in other biobehavioral surveys of MSM in sub-Saharan Africa. Findings suggest that MSM with recent male and female partnerships compared to MSM with only male recent partners have lower odds of positive HIV status and participate in behaviors that lower HIV risk; however, the direction of these relationships cannot be determined due to the cross-sectional nature of the data. The findings also suggest a possible connection between experiences of stigma of MSM behavior and not having both male and female partnerships that warrants further exploration. Accessible, stigma-free HIV testing and education programming that considers the potential overlap between the MSM and general populations via both male and female partnerships and the associated behaviors could be a key component of HIV elimination in Zimbabwe.

The prevalence and associated characteristics of Bipolar Disorder diagnosis among admitted patients at three tertiary psychiatric hospitals in Zimbabwe: A cross sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Bipolar Affective Disorder (BD) is a serious condition that affects more than 1% of the world's population. If not treated can cause disability, yet its prevalence in Zimbabwe is not known. This study explores the burden of Bipolar Disorder and its associated factors in Zimbabwe. METHODS: A cross sectional study with a sample of 272 participants was carried out at three tertiary hospitals in Zimbabwe. Data was collected using an interviewer administered questionnaire and the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (M.I.N.I). The study shows the prevalence and factors associated with Bipolar Disorder at tertiary psychiatric hospitals. Data analysis was done using STATA S/E 13.0 for data management. RESULTS: The prevalence of BD in the sample was 39.3%. Factors associated with BD were, being formally employed (AOR = 3.69, 95%CI: 1.55-8.79), a history of defaulting medications (AOR = 1.90, 95%CI: 1.02-3.57) and a reported previous diagnosis of BD (AOR = 5.66, 95%CI: 2.72-11.8). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of BD among admitted participants in tertiary psychiatric hospitals in Zimbabwe is high. It is comparable to that from African studies done in clinical settings. There is need for in-service training for clinicians to be more vigilant in diagnosing BD.

Bovine anaplasmosis in Zimbabwe: spatio-temporal distribution and environmental drivers.

Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of Bovine anaplasmosis is crucial for identifying areas of high prevalence for targeted disease control. This research was aimed at modelling and mapping the B. anaplasmosis potential distribution, and identify hotspots as well as significant variables explaining the occurrence of the disease. The Getis Ord Gi* statistic for Hotspot analysis was used as well as MaxEnt ecological niche modelling. The effects of time, land-use, and agro-ecological regions on B. anaplasmosis occurrence were tested using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Results showed that several districts in Zimbabwe are suitable for the occurence of the disease for example Binga, Seke, Buhera, Kwekwe, Gweru, Mhondoro, Chegutu, Sanyati, and in the North: Mbire, Muzarabani, Mt Darwin, Shamva, Bindura, Zvimba and Makonde. Morbidity and mortality hotspots were detected in Gokwe-south, Kwekwe, and Chirumhanzu districts. Binga, Gokwe-south, Gutu, Hurungwe, Mazoe, Nkayi, Shamva, and Kwekwe districts also experienced high disease incidences. Temperature seasonality, precipitation seasonality, mean diurnal range, and isothermality were the most important variables in explaining 93% of B. anaplasmosis distribution. Unlike land-use and agro-ecological regions, time (months) had a significant effect on B. anaplasmosis occurrence with July and September having significantly (p < 0.05) higher cases and deaths than the rest of the months. The results of this study provide insights into the management strategies and control of B. anaplasmosis in Zimbabwe. It is thus concluded that geo-spatial techniques, combined with ecological niche modelling can provide useful insights into disease prevalence and distribution and hence can contribute to effective management and control of B. anaplasmosis in Zimbabwe.

Vaccine and Non-Vaccine HPV Types Presence in Adolescents with Vertically Acquired HIV Five Years Post Gardasil Quadrivalent Vaccination: The ZIMGARD Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programs are a key intervention in protecting individuals against HPV-related disease. HIV1-infected individuals are at increased risk of HPV-associated cancers. This study was conducted to evaluate the potential role of prophylactic HPV vaccines in preventing new HPV infections among participants with perinatally acquired HIV who received the quadrivalent HPV vaccine at least five years before this study. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted at Newlands Clinic, Harare, Zimbabwe. The clinic provided the Gardasil quadrivalent HPV vaccine (4vHPV) to 624 adolescents living with HIV starting in December 2015. Vaginal and penile swabs were collected and tested for HPV types from the study participants who had received the 4vHPV vaccine 5-6 years before enrolment. RESULTS: We present the results of 98 participants (44.6% female) vaccinated at a median age of 15 years (IQR 12-16). The mean amount of time since vaccination was 6 years (SD: ±0.4). The HPV-positive rate amongst the analyzed swabs was 69% (68/98). Among 30/98 (31%) HPV-positive participants, 13/98 (13%) had low-risk HPV types, and 17/98 (17%) had high-risk HPV types. Twelve participants tested positive for HPV18, only one participant tested positive for HPV16, and an additional four (4.3%) tested positive for either type 6 or 11, with respect to vaccine-preventable low-risk HPV types. CONCLUSION: The Gardasil quadrivalent HPV vaccine (4vHPV) was expected to protect against infection with HPV types 16, 18, 6, and 11. We demonstrated a possible waning of immunity to HPV18 in 17% of the participants, and an associated loss in cross-protection against HPV45. We observed a relatively high prevalence of 'opportunistic non-vaccine HPV types' or 'ecological niche occupiers' in this cohort, and suggest further research on the involvement of these types in cervical and other genital cancers. Our study is one of the few, if not the first, to report on HPV vaccine immunoprotection among people living with HIV (PLWH), thereby setting a baseline for further studies on HPV vaccine effectiveness among PLWH.

Diabetes mellitus and associated factors among HIV-positive patients at primary health care facilities in Harare, Zimbabwe: a descriptive cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has improved the life expectancy of people living with HIV (PLWH) and has increased the risk of chronic non-communicable diseases. Comorbid HIV and diabetes mellitus (DM) significantly increase cardiovascular disease and mortality risk. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus among HIV-positive patients receiving HAART in Zimbabwe and its associated risk factors. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted at eight primary healthcare facilities in Harare, Zimbabwe, between January 2022 and March 2023. Non-probability convenience sampling was used to recruit adult HIV-positive patients undergoing HAART attending the facilities. Data were captured on clinical history and socio-demographic and behavioral characteristics, and analyzed using descriptive statistics to determine DM prevalence rates. Additionally, bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were employed to examine factors associated with HIV and DM comorbidities. RESULTS: A total of 450 participants were included in this study, of which 57.6% (n = 259) were female. The majority were married (73.8%) and older than 35 years (80.2%). Most participants had completed high school (87.6%) and 68.9% were employed either formally or self-employed. The prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) was 14.9%. HIV/DM comorbidity was more prevalent in patients who were female, self-employed, and smoked (p < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the factors associated with DM-HIV comorbidity were gender, age, education, marital status, employment status, smoking, physical activities, duration of HAART, and diet. Age, level of education, marital status, and occupation were not associated with HIV-DM comorbidity. Obesity (body mass index > 30 kg/m2), smoking, and alcohol consumption were associated with an increased risk of DM. Regular physical activity is associated with a reduced risk of DM. CONCLUSION: A substantial burden of DM was found in PLWH. The intersectoral integration approach is advocated, and active screening for DM is recommended. Gender-specific interventions are necessary to target diseases and health behaviors that differ between men and women. These interventions should be customized to the specific diseases and behaviors of each group.

The Cascade of Care for Early Infant Diagnosis in Zimbabwe: Point of Care HIV Testing at Birth and 6-8 Weeks.

BACKGROUND: Routine birth testing of HIV-exposed infants (HEI) using point of care (POC) nucleic acid testing may allow for earlier diagnosis and treatment of infants living with HIV, but more data are needed on retention in care for those diagnosed at birth and re-testing for those with a negative HIV birth test. METHODS: POC birth testing (within 48 hours of birth) was offered to all HEI born at 10 public maternities in Zimbabwe from November 2018 to July 2019. Data were abstracted from routine registers, including information on re-testing at 6-8 weeks for infants testing HIV-negative at birth and 6-month retention in care among infants diagnosed with HIV at birth. RESULTS: Of 2854 eligible HEIs, 2806 (98.3%) received POC HIV birth testing. Thirty-nine infants with HIV were identified (1.4%), and 23 (59%) were started on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Twenty infants (51%) remained on ART at 6 months. Of the 2694 infants who tested negative at birth, 1229 (46.5%) had a documented retest at 6-8 weeks. 7 (0.6%) of those infants tested HIV-positive. CONCLUSIONS: The uptake of POC birth testing was high in study facilities, but low rates of ART initiation after a positive birth test, despite high retention on ART through 6 months, diminish the impact of POC birth testing and must be addressed. Among infants who tested negative at birth, rates of testing at 6-8 weeks of life (46%) were slightly lower than national rates of testing at the same age without a birth test (56%) during the study period. Improving infant HIV testing rates at 6-8 weeks, regardless of birth testing, should be a priority.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the outcomes of HIV-exposed neonates: a Zimbabwean tertiary hospital experience.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has globally impacted health service access, delivery and resources. There are limited data regarding the impact on the prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) service delivery in low-resource settings. Neotree ( www.neotree.org ) combines data collection, clinical decision support and education to improve care for neonates. Here we evaluate impacts of COVID-19 on care for HIV-exposed neonates. METHODS: Data on HIV-exposed neonates admitted to the neonatal unit (NNU) at Sally Mugabe Central Hospital, Zimbabwe, between 01/06/2019 and 31/12/2021 were analysed, with pandemic start defined as 21/03/2020 and periods of industrial action (doctors (September 2019-January 2020) and nurses (June 2020-September 2020)) included, resulting in modelling during six time periods: pre-doctors' strike (baseline); doctors' strike; post-doctors' strike and pre-COVID; COVID and pre-nurses' strike; nurses' strike; post nurses' strike. Interrupted time series models were used to explore changes in indicators over time. RESULTS: Of 8,333 neonates admitted to the NNU, 904 (11%) were HIV-exposed. Mothers of 706/765 (92%) HIV-exposed neonates reported receipt of antiretroviral therapy (ART) during pregnancy. Compared to the baseline period when average admissions were 78 per week (95% confidence interval (CI) 70-87), significantly fewer neonates were admitted during all subsequent periods until after the nurses' strike, with the lowest average number during the nurses' strike (28, 95% CI 23-34, p < 0.001). Across all time periods excluding the nurses strike, average mortality was 20% (95% CI 18-21), but rose to 34% (95% CI 25, 46) during the nurses' strike. There was no evidence for heterogeneity (p > 0.22) in numbers of admissions or mortality by HIV exposure status. Fewer HIV-exposed neonates received a PCR test during the pandemic (23%) compared to the pre-pandemic periods (40%) (RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.41-0.84, p < 0.001). The proportion of HIV-exposed neonates who received antiretroviral prophylaxis during admission was high throughout, averaging between 84% and 95% in each time-period. CONCLUSION: While antiretroviral prophylaxis for HIV-exposed neonates remained high throughout, concerning data on low admissions and increased mortality, similar in HIV-exposed and unexposed neonates, and reduced HIV testing, suggest some aspects of care may have been compromised due to indirect effects of the pandemic.

Associations between child marriage and food insecurity in Zimbabwe: a participatory mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND: Child marriage is a global crisis underpinned by gender inequality and discrimination against girls. A small evidence base suggests that food insecurity crises can be both a driver and a consequence of child marriage. However, these linkages are still ambiguous. This paper aims to understand how food insecurity influences child marriage practices in Chiredzi, Zimbabwe. METHODS: Mixed methods, including participant-led storytelling via SenseMaker® and key informant interviews, were employed to examine the relationship between food insecurity and child marriage within a broader context of gender and socio-economic inequality. We explored the extent to which food insecurity elevates adolescent girls' risk of child marriage; and how food insecurity influences child marriage decision-making among caregivers and adolescents. Key patterns that were generated by SenseMaker participants' interpretations of their own stories were visually identified in the meta-data, and then further analyzed. Semi-structured guides were used to facilitate key informant interviews. Interviews were audio-recorded, and transcribed and translated to English, then imported into NVivo for coding and thematic analysis. RESULTS: A total of 1,668 community members participated in SenseMaker data collection, while 22 staff participated in interviews. Overall, we found that food insecurity was a primary concern among community members. Food insecurity was found to be among the contextual factors of deprivation that influenced parents' and adolescent girls' decision making around child marriage. Parents often forced their daughters into marriage to relieve the household economic burden. At the same time, adolescents are initiating their own marriages due to limited alternative survival opportunities and within the restraints imposed by food insecurity, poverty, abuse in the home, and parental migration. COVID-19 and climate hazards exacerbated food insecurity and child marriage, while education may act as a modifier that reduces girls' risk of marriage. CONCLUSIONS: Our exploration of the associations between food insecurity and child marriage suggest that child marriage programming in humanitarian settings should be community-led and gender transformative to address the gender inequality that underpins child marriage and address the needs and priorities of adolescent girls. Further, programming must be responsive to the diverse risks and realities that adolescents face to address the intersecting levels of deprivation and elevate the capacities of adolescent girls, their families, and communities to prevent child marriage in food insecure settings.

Prevalence of hypertension and high-normal blood pressure among young adults in Zimbabwe: findings from a large, cross-sectional population-based survey.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is the greatest driver of cardiovascular mortality and onset might be in youth. We aimed to investigate the prevalence of and risk factors for elevated blood pressure (hypertension ≥140 mm Hg systolic, ≥90 mm Hg diastolic, or both) and high-normal blood pressure (130-139 mm Hg systolic, 85-89 mm Hg diastolic, or both) among youth in Zimbabwe. METHODS: A population-based, cross-sectional survey of randomly sampled youth aged 18-24 years from 24 urban and peri-urban communities in three provinces (Harare, Bulawayo, and Mashonaland East) in Zimbabwe was conducted between Oct 4, 2021, and June 2, 2022. Standardised questionnaires were used by research assistants to collect sociodemographic, behavioural, and clinical data. Height, bodyweight, and blood pressure were recorded. Three seated blood pressure measurements were taken at standardised timepoints during participant interview using a digital sphygmomanometer and cuffs sized on mid-upper arm circumference. The association of potential risk factors with elevated blood pressure was examined using multivariable logistic regression. FINDINGS: 17 682 (94·4%) of 18 729 eligible participants were recruited, 17 637 (99·7%) of whom had complete data, and 16 883 (95·7%) of whom were included in the final study sample after excluding 754 (4·3%) pregnant women. The median age was 20 years (IQR 19-22), 9973 (59·1%) participants were female, and 6910 (40·9%) were male. The prevalence of hypertension was 7·4% (95% CI 7·0-7·8) and high-normal blood pressure was 12·2% (11·7-12·7). Overall, prevalence of hypertension was higher in men (8·7% [95% CI 8·2-9·6]) than in women (6·6% [6·0-6·9]), but with age increased to similar levels (at age 18 years 7·3% [6·2-8·6] and 4·3% [3·5-5·2]; at age 23-24 years 10·9% [9·3-12·6] and 9·5% [8·4-10·7] in men and women, respectively). After adjusting for factors associated with hypertension in the crude analysis, hypertension was associated with male sex (adjusted odds ratio 1·53 [95% CI 1·36-1·74]), increasing age (age 19-20 years 1·20 [1·00-1·44]; age 21-22 years 1·45 [1·20-1·75]; age 23-24 years 1·90 [1·57-2·30], vs age 18 years), and BMI of 30·0 kg/m2 or more (1·94 [1·53-2·47] vs 18·5-24·9 kg/m2). A BMI of 18·5 kg/m2 or less (0·79 [0·63-0·98] vs 18·5-24·9 kg/m2) and living with HIV (0·71 [0·55-0·92]) were associated with lower odds of hypertension. INTERPRETATION: Prevalence of elevated blood pressure is high among urban and peri-urban youth in Zimbabwe and increases rapidly with age. Further research is needed to understand drivers of blood pressure elevation and the extent of target organ damage in youth in Zimbabwe and similar sub-Saharan African settings, to guide implementation of prevention and management strategies. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.